ERAM v1.0 · Escalation Risk Assessment · Burak Oktenli

ERAM v1.0 · Escalation Risk Assessment · Burak Oktenli · Georgetown University

ERAM MONITOR STRATEGIC MONITORING LAYER

SYSTEM NOMINAL

SATA

MONITORING

Trust Analysis

▶

HMAA

NOMINAL

Auth Hierarchy

▶

CARA

STANDBY

HW Interlock

▶

MAIVA

IDLE

PBFT Consensus

▶

FLAME

NOMINAL

Deliberation

▶

ADARA

NOMINAL

Deception Det.

SYSTEM INITIALIZATION

ERAM v1.0 - AUTHREX SYSTEMS - ESCALATION RISK ASSESSMENT

SATA trust engine ................[OK]

HMAA authority matrix .............[OK]

CARA compliance module ............[OK]

MAIVA voting engine ...............[OK]

FLAME deliberation core ...........[OK]

ADARA deception filter ............[OK]

ERAM escalation monitor ...........[OK]

PRNG seed 0x4F7A2C1E ..............[OK]

6 threat scenarios ................[OK]

Model-property checker ...........[OK]

Escalation calibration ............[OK]

System integrity ..................[PASS]

AUTHREX SYSTEMS: ONLINE

ERAM v1.0 - ALL SUBSYSTEMS NOMINAL

P(ESCALATION)

0.000

Composite

DCR

100.0

Compression

CASCADE

0.000

Max CRI

HRW

∞

Recovery window

ACI

1.000

Chain integrity

UNSAFE

Violations

STATUS

MONITOR

Nominal

P(Escalation) Timeline

P_esc = 1 − Π(1 − DCR_w × CRI_i × domain_risk_i) · DCR_w = min(1, log₁₀(DCR)/3)

Decision Compression Curve

DCR = human_ms / ai_ms · HRW = max(0, FLAME_win − cascade_prop)

Per-Node ACI · CRI

ACI_i = τ_i × (A_i/3) × flame_i × (1 − P_d_i) · CRI = Σ coupling(i,j) × (1 − ACI_j)

Cascade · HRW Timeline

cascade_prop = ai_speed × num_nodes × max_coupling

Monte Carlo · Mulberry32 · Seed 0x4F7A2C1E · 600 trials (6×100)

Ready

Distribution

Per-Scenario

WCET - Worst Case Execution Time

Audit Chain Verification

FLAME Escalation Reduction

Adversarial Fuzz Testing

Ready

Governance Latency Profile

Sensitivity Matrix - FLAME Reduction per SC

Explainability Report

Governance Audit · 0

TICK	TIME	P(ESC)	DCR	CRI	HRW	STATUS	UNSAFE

SPATIAL C2 COP · VECTOR WIREFRAME
AWAITING TELEMETRY...

MAIVA limitation. The implemented quorum check verifies roster size against a threshold derived from that same roster size. It does not implement Byzantine fault tolerant consensus. The PBFT reference describes the intended design, not the current implementation.